灾害救援中基于民众心理感知的应急物资多阶段分配问题研究

为有效解决在保证高效完成救援任务的同时考虑受灾民众行为，进而提高灾民对救援处置效果的满意度问题，结合行为运筹学相关理论和不公平厌恶理论，提出民众对于应急物资到达时间的风险感知度量模型，以及民众对于所得到的应急物资数量的公平满意度度量模型，构建基于灾民心理感知的应急物资多阶段调度模型，解决应急物资到达时间风险感知、物资分发数量公平满意度等多目标下的调配决策问题；设计基于蚁群优化思想的求解算法。研究结果表明:通过实例分析对比验证了模型在提升灾区民众对于应急物资分发策略满意度方面的有效性。     

基于AHP-联系熵的应急预案实施过程风险评估

应急预案制定后的实施对于事故发生后预案的顺利运行至关重要，因此，有必要对应急预案实施过程的风险水平进行度量。以应急预案实施过程作为研究对象，基于风险理论与AHP-联系熵耦合方法开展风险评估。以应急预案实施过程风险水平为目标层，应急预案的宣传教育和培训、应急资源的定期检查落实、应急演习训练、应急预案的实用性检验、应急预案电子化、事故回顾等过程要素作为策略层，实施方法科学高效、调动工作者积极的态度、领导的重视和能力、设备的完整性作为方案层，形成应急预案实施过程风险评估三级模型；运用联系熵表征风险标准与应急预案实施过程风险水平这2个集对之间的关联性，在AHP结构模型和权重分配的基础上计算加权熵并得到目标层的总联系熵，对比标准熵区间得到应急预案实施过程的整体风险等级。结果表明，采用AHP-联系熵度量方法提高了评价结果的结构性和准确性，比传统直接加权的方法更符合实际情况。     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失，以化工多米诺事故为研究对象，探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法，梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程，并以1个天然气压气站为案例，验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

分散式污水处理设施集约化管理创新探索

随着近年来大量农村污水处理设施的新建,项目污水处理设施面广、点多、单体规模小、污染物浓度变化大、经营困难等问题凸显,如何突破困境找到一条相对适合分散式污水处理设施的运营管理十分必要。本文提出了集约化管理创新探索,在生产标准化管理、人力资源管理、安全管理、设备设施管理及物资管理等方面全方位的总结了运营管理经验,为分散式污水处理设施管理提供了参考和借鉴。     

Research based on double coverage rate and reliability of gas detector layout optimization

The gas detector layout should be highly attuned to combustible gas leakage and attain a good reliability in avoiding detector malfunction, which is an important guarantee for the normal production of the chemical industry and other related enterprises. Herein, a gas detector layout optimization method based on double coverage and reliability is proposed. The key gas leakage monitoring area is determined through layout scene field investigation. To improve the detection probability and detection system reliability, the dual coverage target and voting mechanism are set, and the gas detector layout is determined with the ray-casting algorithm according to the coverage target. Combined with FLACS software to simulate a variety of typical leakage conditions under different layout scenarios, the relationship between the leaked gas concentration detected by gas detectors in each layout scheme and time is obtained, and the gas leakage detection probability in each layout scheme, number of detectors that can trigger the alarm, shortest time to trigger the alarm and reliability are comprehensively evaluated. The decision-maker selects the final gas detector layout plan according to the evaluation results and actual site needs. The study shows that the detection probability of each layout scheme set according to the double coverage is high, and multiple detectors can trigger the alarm (up to 100%), which ensures that the alarm can be triggered within 10 s under all applicable conditions. According to the evaluation results, the decision-maker can obtain a layout scheme that not only agrees with the actual site conditions but also attains a high detection probability, short detection time and strong reliability.     

Effects of nitrogen and carbon dioxide on hydrogen explosion behaviors near suppression limit

By varying inert gas content, equivalence ratio and initial pressure, this study is aimed at investigating flame propagation behaviors and explosion pressure characteristics near suppression limit. For carbon dioxide, the weakest flame floating phenomenon is observed at Φ = 1.5 and the buoyant instability is enhanced when the equivalent ratio deviates to the rich and lean sides. For nitrogen, the buoyant instability decreases with increasing equivalent ratio. Both maximum explosion pressure and maximum pressure rise rate increase firstly and then decrease with the increase of equivalence ratio, and they decrease significantly with increasing content of carbon dioxide and nitrogen. For carbon dioxide, the critical suppression ratio of Φ = 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 is 7.50, 7.18, 5.74, 3.83, and 2.87. For nitrogen, the critical suppression ratio of Φ = 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 is 15.83, 11.87, 9.50, 6.33 and 4.75. Compared to nitrogen, the carbon dioxide is more effective on suppressing hydrogen explosion pressure. The adiabatic flame temperature, thermal diffusivity and mole fraction of active radicals continue to decrease with increasing content of carbon dioxide and nitrogen, which contributes to the decrease of laminar burning velocity.     

基于成本收益理论的井场作业人员不安全行为决策分析

为有效制定油气田井场作业人员不安全行为的防范措施,降低事故发生可能性,基于成本收益理论建立油气田井场作业人员的行为决策模型,通过仿真计算定量分析了不同影响因素对不安全行为产生的影响程度。结果表明:正向激励和负向激励对不安全行为的降低幅度为21.8%,17.2%,负向激励和监督力度共同作用下不安全行为可降低44.8%。油田企业在保证利润的前提下应优先提升HSE奖励水平,合理控制罚金水平的同时加大管理监督力度,从而有效减少作业人员不安全行为的发生,保障企业的安全生产。     

Factors influencing perceptions of aquatic ecosystems

While factors influencing perceptions of drinking water have been well studied, those of aquatic ecosystems have been to lesser extent. We conducted a review to improve awareness of these factors. Environmental factors found to influence public perceptions of aquatic ecosystems were presence/absence of water plants and algae, presence/absence of floating debris, the odor, movement (for flowing waters) and clarity/turbidity of the water, and the type, condition, setting, naturalness, and overall aesthetic appeal of the ecosystem. Sociocultural factors found to influence public perceptions of aquatic ecosystems included age, education, gender, and place-based knowledge. We provide perspectives of how managers can better meet the diverse social demands placed on aquatic ecosystems. The importance and benefits of considering these perspectives may be especially beneficial where significant multi-generational and culturally relevant place-based knowledge exist.     

Potential energy production from organic waste and its environmental and economic impacts at a tertiary institution in Palestine

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is one of the most well-known biomass resources that can be utilized to produce renewable energy. Numerous countries are plagued by the proliferation of waste, particularly organic waste that can be utilized for energy recovery. Palestine suffers from inefficient solid waste management, and only recently have a few projects focused on bioenergy production been implemented. Throughout the years, the city of Tulkarm experiences power outages which cause a challenge to the Palestine Technical University-Kadoorie campus in Tulkarm. Thus, the possibility of energy recovery from the organic portion in Palestine Technical University-Kadoorie was evaluated. The analysis of an economic impact included discussions of a number of economic aspects, including Levelized cost of energy, internal rate of return, present worth, annual worth, and payback period. On the other hand, a carbon dioxide savings analysis and gas emission were evaluated. The outcomes of the energy optimization demonstrated that the suggested system could supply the institution with an average of roughly 7 MWh of electrical energy. According to the economic study, this project offers 0.25 million dollars in present value, 0.144 million dollars in annual value, a 13 percent internal rate of return, a payback period of 6 years, and a levelized cost of energy of 0.11 dollars for each kWh generated. Additionally, the environmental assessment revealed that this system might reduce CO₂ emissions by around 8,343,778 tons. For effective waste management, energy recovery, and emission reduction, it is advised to implement anaerobic digestion technology.     

排污权交易之排放跟踪数据校核研究

本文以排污权交易的核心业务排放跟踪管理为出发点,选择电厂二氧化硫指标进行排放跟踪数据过程校核体系研究,探索进一步提高排污权交易体系中排放数据准确性的机制。